Deputy Chief Executive, Education, Network for Learning
It has been almost five years since I left principalship and with the passage of time I now look back at my 13 (mostly) enjoyable years as a principal and realise that principalship is actually a highly complex version of Whackamole! You get one thing under control and voila here is the next mole popping its head up, whack, and here is another!!! This isn’t to say that my current job isn’t busy (it is) but I don’t miss the daily mole whacking, the unpredictability, and the busyness of a principal’s role. As I see it, the biggest challenge of principalship is that it is a job that has diverse and constantly competing demands, has an unrelenting focus on coping with the current challenges, and leaves very little opportunity to think further out than tomorrow, next week or even next year. Yet the world outside the school gate is changing rapidly, and in ways never experienced before in the history of human civilisation. Education leaders need to work out how best to understand the exponential changes that will eventually impact every area of our lives and to engage with the implications that these will have on our current models of education delivery. Industrial Revolution Update Since 1750 the world has experienced three and is now on the cusp of a fourth industrial revolution. Industrial Revolution 1 (1750–1830)
Coal, steam engines, railroads and textiles
Industrial Revolution 2 (1870–1900)
Electricity, internal combustion engines, modern communications, entertainment, petroleum/hydrocarbons and chemicals
Industrial Revolution 3 (1960– present)
Computing and telecommunications
Industrial Revolution 4 (Present–???)
Ever-increasing capability to automate previously human-only jobs
Some commentators have named this fourth industrial revolution the Robot Revolution. It has the following characteristics:
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From mechanical muscles to mechanical minds: Past industrial revolutions mainly impacted ‘blue collar’ jobs with mechanical muscles replacing human muscles. The Robot Revolution will replace human minds with mechanical minds, with the number of jobs in the legal and commercial fields declining significantly as artificially intelligent (AI) machines use big data to search and aggregate information much faster and more comprehensively than any human mind could ever manage. We will also see significant shifts in the practice of medicine – already AI algorithms are detecting cancer at significantly higher rates than human practitioners. In the past white collar workers have been relatively immune from job losses caused by technological advances. This is no longer the case. From special purpose robots to general purpose robots As artificial intelligence matures and is integrated more deeply into products and services robots will increasingly perform a multiplicity of tasks. Of significance to education are Soul Machines being developed at the University of Auckland. Soul machines are emotionally intelligent robots and are already being used in Australia as assistants for people with special needs. These robots respond emotionally and through artificial intelligence they are constantly learning about ‘their’ human’s needs and preferences thus increasing their effectiveness with every interaction. As Soul Machines mature how might they support learners in classrooms? Imagine students accessing their own personal robotic assistant, who through artificial intelligence, knows more about how they learn than any human ever could, and is able to offer emotional support as well. From almost full employment to massive unemployment The first three technological revolutions resulted in an increased number of jobs. As the manufacturing process became more automated, the cost of products dropped therefore more people could afford to buy them which drove demand upwards
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and resulted in more jobs. This is not going to be the case for the fourth revolution. Commentators are predicting massive unemployment as more and more jobs are taken over by robots. From unemployment benefit to universal basic income Many countries are already investigating the notion of a universal basic income (UBI) which everyone receives. Those with a job receive a payment over and above the UBI. A UBI is set at the level that ensures those without jobs are still able to live a reasonable life. In the past many (including me) have argued that schools will always exist, as society needs its children looked after while parents work. If parents could stay at home, with sufficient income, all the necessary resources for their child to learn available online, and the ability to use an app to organize ‘playdates’ around physical and cultural activities would they continue to send their children to a local school? Incremental Change to Exponential Change Often when I am speaking to groups about exponential change I pose the following problem.
“Imagine a lily pond in which everyday the number of lilies doubles. On the first day there is one lily and after 40 days the pond is full. On what day is the pond half full of lilies?” Many people answer 20 days but this is incorrect. The correct answer is 39 days. Because the number of lilies doubles every day then at 39 days the pond is half full, with all the lilies doubling during the next day making the pond full at 40 days. The reason people say 20 days is that we naturally think incrementally, step by step. But in the exponential space, we have to think in doubles, and one of the characteristics of doubles thinking is that at first it looks like nothing is happening. Another example is paper folding. For normal-sized pieces of paper, seven folds is the maximum number you can make. The first few folds are really easy but unless you are using a piece of paper the size of a football field you cannot fold it an eighth time. Or going back to childhood if someone offered to pay you $2 for every tooth you lost or one cent for the first tooth and double the amount for every subsequent tooth, which one would you take? Smart kids take the doubling option as by tooth number nine you are earning $2.56 with tooth number ten it is $5.12 etc. I’ll leave you to work out what tooth number 20 is worth!
Graphing technology vs time produces the following exponential curve. Note how long the line is flat before the impact of doubling causes it to rise sharply. Notice also where commentators think humans are in relation to the curve. Peter Diamandis from Singularity University describes six stages of exponential change. These are: 1. Digitization – a product or service digitizes. In education we’ve seen this with the uptake of G-suite, O365, Chromebooks, BYOD etc 2. Deceptive – this is the flat part of the exponential curve and where I think education is at present. Slowly but surely the use of digital technologies is doubling but we have yet to see it break out of the ‘what we have always done but now we are doing it online’ pattern. 3. Disruptive Growth – this is when the use of a technology reaches the point when it begins to disrupt. This has yet to happen in education but the day will come and many will stand around and wonder why we never saw it coming. Think about the massive disruption Uber is causing to the taxi industry or AirBnB to the hospitality industry. When these apps first appeared no-one saw the disruption they would eventually bring. 4. Dematerialisation – this is when a product or service ceases to exist in isolation. Think about cameras – most people now grab their cell phones when they want to take a photo. 5. Demonetization – once a product has dematerialised its cost drops significantly. You pay no extra for your cell phone because it contains a camera. 6. Democratization – As products become dematerialised and demonetized then they become available to millions of users.
Getting the conversation started There are lots of really important ‘now’ conversations going on at all levels of education; how are we going to solve the teacher shortage, what about the Auckland problem, how do we ensure the wellbeing of our teachers, how do we attract and keep the best and brightest graduates in teaching? And how do we keep these conversations going while at the same time have the important ‘future/exponential change’ conversations? How do we encourage principals’ associations, regional associations and national executive bodies to include conversations about the exponential changes that are about to have a significant impact on life as we know it? We really need to start talking about the future now, because failure to do so will mean the end of schools as we know them.
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